Akbar was a great Mughal Emperor and Birbal was his witty minister. One day, Akbar was taking a walk in his garden with Birbal. Many crows were flying around. As he observed the birds flying, he thought of asking Birbal a tricky question.
He asked, “How many crows are there in our kingdom, Birbal?”
Birbal thought for a moment, and then said, "There are ninety-five thousand, four hundred and sixty three crows in your kingdom, Huzoor."
"How do you know that for sure?" the King asked."You can get them counted, Huzoor." Birbal said.
The Emperor again said, "If there are less than that, then?" Birbal replied immediately, "That means that the rest of them have gone on vacation to some nieghbouring kingdoms."
"And if there are more than that, then?" asked Akbar."Then it means that other crows have come to visit their relatives in our kingdom, Huzoor,” said the witty minister.
Akbar was very pleased with the answer and gave Birbal a suitable reward.
Now lets change the question to "Market kya lagta hai?" (How will market behave?). Will it go up, go down, by how much, by when & why! You would get lots of answers from lots of learned people, justifying every move of the markets.
Earnings, Monsoon, Fiscal situation, Politics, Elections, Global Markets, Risk On/Off, Interest Rates, Liquidity, Inflation, Commodity Prices, Terrorism, War, Social Unrest, Job Markets, Scams, Etc. So many things are happening simultaneously. Information along with lots of noise, rumours, false news travels almost in real time! Its almost impossible to understand markets on so called news as its all so interconnected and all these forces act in different directions for the markets.
You would keep getting Birbal like witty answers for "Market kya lagta hai?" But if you really want to make sense of financial markets, look at price action. Its formed by human action (people buying and selling), everything is discounted and reflected in market prices.
Picture is worth a thousand words! Technical Analysis is nothing but study of price action in pictures (price charts)!!